What ought?

Saturday, May 30, 2026

[[On debt and "stealing" from future generations]]

So in line with a post I wrote quite a while back ago about corruption being arguably the worst ill a govt can face. I think debt is a ridiculous tool that govts / corporations can use, and again this goes back to the principal-agent problem.

So, debt is borrowing money to spend now (generally) by promising to repay higher amounts (with interest) in the future. Generally the entity doing the borrowing is evaluated for credit worthiness by the people doing the lending. A more credit worthy entity is given lower interest rate because the risk of default (not paying back) is lower - a higher interest rate compensates for taking on a higher risk of default. At least that's the theory. So if a person defaults, he is sued for bankruptcy, debt is discharged (with quite partial repayment) after serving some time out and taking on some consequences.

But then comes in all these corporate entities right, companies and arguably event trusts and foundations and whatnot. Ok so instead of evaluating the person you just have to evaluate the entity right? And there is no bankruptcy proceedings, you can just liquidate the corporate entity, sell all the assets, give a partial repayment and then the rest of the debt is just gone, bad debt, buyer (of debt) beware. The person making the decision to take on the debt, however, can come out much better than the corporate entity (which is liquidated and doesn't have feelings anyway), e.g if he personally pays himself a high salary from the borrowed monies. Well, arguably really buyer beware, greedy want to lend money and earn high interest then take the hit when the corporation uses its private limited liability status to block you from recovering the debt.

Then it comes to governments. Currently governments take on debt to do all sorts of spending, some productive, some consumptive. The government, like the corporation, is actually just a legal concept, everyone agrees this is the government then it is the government. Generally governments have rights to tax and ownership of land (that they haven't sold) vested by... who knows what, the will of the people or the threat of force and so on so forth. They can also create money by printing, but that will cause inflation.

So what happens when a government defaults? In the old days you could sail your ships up their river and point your guns at their government / commercial buildings and make them cede you territory. But nowadays thats kinda frowned upon. So generally the story, nowadays, goes that if a government defaults they will take a hit to their credit worthiness and then they won't be able to borrow money at low interest rates again anymore.

Theres no way to liquidate a government without war. And what is the claim that a government has on its people and/or land? In theory, an unlimited legal claim because the government makes the laws, in practice, who knows the limit? The population can disown the govt (at least parts of) and secede, resist seizure of assets / taxation, leave, vote in / rebel and install a new government that doesn't seize all they have.

A government taking debt has been said to be "stealing" from future generations, by enjoying now and letting the burden of repaying the debt / dealing with the repercussions fall on successive governments and the peoples that they govern. Well of course this only holds true if the debt is spent consumptively rather than productively. If it is productive, the future governments and peoples will have a higher return on investment of the debt than the interest and that will be good for them.

But perhaps the model can be expanded even more. The ability to pay the debt is based on the past (i.e previous credit worthiness) to access money in the present, to be paid back in the future. 

What happens when those in charge of a legal entity doesn't care about its future, or is not correctly incentivised to care about its future? Very destructive things can happen. Its like a person that is suicidal or just living in the short term. Could just spend all his/her money, max out the credit cards and eat, drink, party because tomorrow we die. Most peoples will not do that because it is bad for them and they bear the consequences, but those in charge might be long gone, either retired so that it is someone else's problem, or dead (because they are very old).

Who then has the duty to fight back and prevent such things from happening? The young who will inherit the future? The unborn who will do the same? But they are powerless currently.

History will judge, but dead people could care less about that.

Credit agencies worth anything will downgrade.

Future generations will default or die.

Hmm... I don't have a good solution to this. Even what I have previously said about old people should not be allowed to vote / take office is clearly flawed. A middle aged man can still not care. An old person with kids can care .etc.

Actually I think as a society this hurdle is impossible to be solved by systematic means. This misalignment of incentives is always there and we need the right people, who are not seeking self interest to be in charge, and enough people in a democracy, to not put people who are seeking self interest to be in charge. These farsighted, morally principled people have existed before and will continue to exist.

And a society that has rotted from within to only chase self interest, especially as a generation, will just fade away. Of course their kids will pay the consequences. And perhaps it is fitting that it is so, it is a pipe dream to think that it is unfair for kids to pay the consequences of their parent's sins. Anyway these are not eternal consequences, merely just a lot tougher a life leading to stronger peoples!

[[I wrote this at]]*|3:24 PM|

Thursday, May 21, 2026

[[]]

I walked back in the rain today (well last night, i wrote this part last night). It wasn't a very long walk, maybe half an hour and maybe only 10+ minutes in the rain.

The rain was moderate to heavy. The rain stung my eyes and it is quite hard to see with rain on my glasses.

But, I felt like a boss when I walked around in soaked clothes without caring about being soaked, smiling at people as I pass them by, people who desperately try to stay dry - hiding in the sidewalks, behind umbrellas, still getting somewhat wet because the rain is heavy. All these ants scattering!!

Every one seems to be slightly stumped and perhaps, have some begrudging respect for a person that walks in the rain, happily. For the person shows that he is above small inconveniences. Even more, he is able to enjoy that which would be an inconvenience to people.

I think most people will want to walk in the rain, but they don't. Because...? They are not walking home? They are not healthy? They are constrained by social conventions?

Perhaps why we build more sheltered walkway is because we rush around to do stuff. When we rush around to do stuff, we can't walk in the rain, because we can't be wet at place of doing stuff.

Anyway, I was looking forward to walk in the rain for quite awhile, ever since bighead got to play in the rain. It was fun. 

Very worth my phone and wallet being wet. Anyway they will dry.

[[I wrote this at]]*|7:55 AM|

Sunday, May 10, 2026

[[On reaching out to people who do not reach out to you]]

Short post, surprisingly I do have some ideas, but this is the briefest one and let me bang it out before midnight hopefully.

So I've been thinking why do I reach out to people who do not reach out to me. And I just watched an instagram reel that had this lady relating a story about a woman who had a best friend whom she grew up with, raised her kids with and all. And they spoke everyday on the phone. And one day she decided to not call her friend and see how long it would take before her friend called her and in two years she still hadn't heard from her friend. And she used it to conclude that people don't value the friendship the way she did.

So this reel is just the trigger but I have already been thinking about this for quite long, in fact, it is something that most peoples who want to have a good social life have to wrestle with some time in their life. And I do think this is reasonably illuminating about how I treat a lot of things.

So my thesis, working thesis, implemented thesis is this: I reach out when I feel like reaching out.

It's actually very simple. When I feel like reaching out, in almost all cases, I think that the effort of reaching out is worth the potential payoff (i'm using feel a bit funny here but I don't think that this is the main issue, if you wanna quibble on my use of feel, FEEL free to substitute it for this more technical definition instead) - for the philo people.

So... reach out whenever I feel like. Once I do that, they have the option to either respond favourably or not. But of course when I reached out, I am rational man, and I already know the probabilities or had guessed at the probabilities. If I didn't know the probabilities, I could then update, with the new result, better probabilities. For me, if I get more "no" than "yes", the cost benefit analysis of my (rational) feel just slowly reduces the times I feel like reaching out, or the gaps in between becomes longer. This is almost a mathematical relationship, assuming no new change to the relationship dynamic. Of course if there are changes to relationship dynamic then it will affect "net positive of connecting" hard.

Of course there are other axes beyond "no" and "yes" to reaching out e.g if you are very fond of the person, if the person is useful to you .etc .etc. But putting all that aside to isolate the effect of reaching out, I think the above is the most rational course of action because it maximises personal happiness, almost by definition.

The longer argument goes like this
1. Reaching out is free. If it is not free, it is very low cost. If it is not very low cost, put aside your ego / fear of rejection and make it very low cost.
2. We generally want to reach out when we think that "connecting" (after reaching out) is a net positive
3. As such, the expected value, then, is "net positive of connecting"*"probability of connecting after reaching out"
4. In a list of competing priorities, one than takes that action when the EV is the highest among all other options. In general, there will come a time when you have nothing else better to do and then you reach out.
Ok the above was the main argument, now its an extended argument for reaching out when people say no multiple times (for yknow, yknow cases and other similar cases, depending on what you know)
5. As "probability of connecting after reaching out" decreases based on "no" received, generally "net positive of connecting" also decreases (though in some case I suppose distance makes the heart grow fonder)
6. As an aside, I think that "net positive of connecting" follows an interesting pattern (at least nowadays) whereby there is a peak "net positive of connecting" at some X time after previous meeting and, X decreases when closeness is higher. Like immediately meeting the next day wouldn't be a good "net positive of connecting" for most cases in my age cos like what would you talk about LOL. After this X maybe it slowly (very slowly) degrades. 
7. But when the feeling comes, basically the perceived "net positive of connecting" spikes, maybe you are lonely or thinking of the person or whatnot, who knows. doesn't matter whatever it is, as long as the EV is high enough then you do it lor.

The obvious implication of this is that for the story on top, she stopped reaching out. Friend didn't reach out. Then what? Feel smug about dropping a friend, feel sad about dropping a friend that didn't reach out wtv it is you have dropped a friend that you would rather have had, which just sounds illogical to me.

Like so what if the friend doesnt reach out. Yes you would prefer if the friend reached out. But is it like ego of being valued less that makes it lose-lose? Like it sounds like a case of, I get +10 benefit (arbitrary units), you only get + 3 benefit from this case, hence i pay the (hypothetical) cost of 3 units each time to reach out. OH BOOO you get no benefit from reaching out (assuming friend is logical), thus I shan't continue reaching out because you clearly don't value it enough to reach out. Here we can assume that the friend gets a positive benefit (because friend picked up her call everyday), probably reasonably assume that the benefit is not as high for the friend (correctly she deduced) OR the friend has a crippling fear or just doesn't like to initiate (cost of reaching out is very high for friend).

What i'm saying, in all the above words, is that whatever the other person thinks is actually a non-consideration at all. HAHAHAH. there I said it. Only the "yes" or "no" matters right...?

Maybe I'm too free market but I find myself really unable to think for others and then act based on what I think they think in that very extra way where it has to be inferred quite far from their actions. This also means that if people would prefer not to meet but don't know how to / don't want / don't like to say no, and the + EV is very high for me I will just keep asking the person to meet LOL. I mean... if prefer not just say no la, don't just keep saying yes (because in saying yes, my logical conclusion is that it is +EV for you too, right?). There's a very high cost for me to try and read people's brains and I'm really not very good at it. Ok let me not digress too much... but you can probably infer that I was stuck in something like this at least once.

Just another quick point on this is that this train of thought is consistent with the golden rule (do on to other what you would want them to do on to you - well I want others to communicate clearly as I do). 

Another quick point is also that it is consistent with what I think is the biblical definition of love too. In that love does what is good for the other person WHERE good is objectively defined and not just what the other person wants, and what the other person wants has to be communicated else (or reasonably inferred) else I think its reasonable for me to use my own inference. 

Ok for completeness, the full EV calculation on whether to reach out also has to include (negative) cost of being rejected. I left it out cos its like quite negligible to me in most cases. And I think you can make it negligible to you too, if you put aside your ego. Of course it still hurts for me, especially like, in more special cases, but in the vast majority of cases who the heck cares, people are busy, people have issues, none of my business / not a rejection of me as a person IS actually the correct way to read it.

Well i'm sure this could be tightened but I've already missed my midnight deadline so...

[[I wrote this at]]*|12:24 AM|

Saturday, May 2, 2026

[[]]

I think that gaining perspective is actually a prerequisite to wisdom.

Actually I'm quite amazed at how resilient creation and humanity as a whole has been. Like it navigates quite well.

I dunno, I have come to think that many very very real problems of humanity like corruption, inequality, death and illness are all yknow, nothing new under the sun. And there is some comfort / hope in that people have survived and thrived throughout all that. 

There are new problems like nuclear war, climate change, some AI non-control, pollution and low birthrate. Hmm, some I think are overblown, some I think are not real problems, some are very serious but its all relative right, very serious compared to what?

Well since I am a Christian the worldview has to come in. I suppose at the root of it, on the macro level, all of the problems are sin-related. And actually i'm quite amazed at the liberal dispensation of common grace that has limited to excesses of all the problems of the world. 

There are actually a few observations that might be interesting to look at this (secularly):

1. There is no reason why earth is so accommodating to human life, and we are advancing our impact on the natural world exponentially. Quite surprising how we have not yet destroyed ourselves across quite a large range of impacts.

2. Of course, naturalistically, it could be that we are the first and/or not the first but everything else is buried (is the same argument as why we don't meet aliens yet)

3. Alot of the new problems can actually be traced back to same underlying fears. Low birthrate -> well there were plagues and stuff that have lowered humanity's populations significantly, nuclear war -> well gunpower / machine gun was quite revolutionary in killing peoples, pollution -> has been supposed to break everything for quite long time ago.

I am under the impression that Jesus will come back to judge the world that is not in ruin. At the very least humanity can't be extinct because then there will be no one alive to judge. I also don't think he judges the remnants after a nuclear holocaust, 1 million people spread around the world, struggling to grow potatoes in some back corner of north canada, patagonia, siberia and somewhere desolate in africa. I mean no direct quotation but well, just doesnt seem to be suggested. Instead what seems to be suggested is that humanity grows in both progress and sinfulness.

Um, my individual takeaway then was that don't need to jump when hear such things. But then, if my dad says the same i think he just doesn't understand. Truly maybe jumping is for the young and a privilege.

[[I wrote this at]]*|12:18 AM|

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